Freight brokers operate at the intersection of two increasingly frustrated stakeholders. Carriers face the worst market conditions in modern trucking history—with 17 bankruptcies of carriers with 250+ tractors in Q3 2025 alone—while shippers grapple with tariff-induced chaos that makes long-term planning “impossible.” Understanding both perspectives isn’t just good business practice; it’s essential for brokers navigating a market where traditional peak season patterns have collapsed, regional capacity imbalances create massive rate variation, and neither side feels they’re getting what they need.
Carriers are fighting for survival in a market that won’t turn
The carrier perspective in October 2025 can be summarized in one brutal statistic: spot rates sit at $2.36 per mile while diesel costs $3.71 per gallon. Small carriers operate in “survival mode” with rejection rates at just 5.6%—far below the 8% threshold needed for meaningful rate improvement. As one industry analyst noted, “when rejection rates stay this low for this long, brokers and shippers hold most of the cards.”
The manufacturing contraction compounds this pain. The September 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, marking the seventh consecutive month below 50. For carriers, especially those running dry van and flatbed, this means less raw material moving in and fewer finished goods moving out. One carrier-focused publication put it bluntly: “A PMI under 50? That’s not just an economist’s signal—that’s a real-world indicator for anyone pulling freight.”
Werner Enterprises CEO Derek Leathers revealed at the Wex OTR Summit that he “knew of 17 bankruptcies of carriers with more than 250 tractors in the past quarter.” The collapse of Montgomery Transport in October 2025—eliminating 650 jobs from a 14-year-old company—illustrates how this recession has lasted “more than double the length of a typical downswing.” Private equity owner One Equity Partners cited “weak freight rates, an aging fleet and high maintenance costs” as reasons for liquidation rather than restructuring.
Small carriers face an impossible equation. The 20-cent gap between spot rates and operating costs “doesn’t sound like much, but it’s the line between profit and break-even.” With national truckload rates barely moving from mid-$2.30s to $2.36, carriers cannot absorb continued cost increases. The article warns: “Spot rates aren’t keeping up with operating costs.”
There’s one bright spot in carrier data: reefer carriers show rejection rates at 16%—nearly triple the dry van rate—with spot rates at $2.58 per mile. Seasonal harvest demand and holiday food distribution create meaningful leverage for temperature-controlled capacity.
Shippers face a different crisis: the tariff-induced reverse peak season
While carriers struggle with overcapacity and low rates, shippers confront something unprecedented: a peak season that came and went before October arrived. The National Retail Federation’s Jonathan Gold explained: “This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect.”
The numbers tell a stark story. August 2025 handled 2.32 million TEUs, already down 2.9% from July’s peak. But forecasts show accelerating declines: October is projected at 1.97 million TEUs (down 12.3% year-over-year), November at 1.75 million TEUs (down 19.2%), and December at 1.72 million TEUs (down 19.4%)—the slowest month since March 2023.
Catherine Chien, Chairwoman of Dimerco Express Group, described the situation: “Normally, we would expect a peak starting from the last week of September ahead of Golden Week. So far, there are no clear signs or major orders in the market indicating this trend.” Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion, confirmed that toys and sporting equipment show “20% less volume compared to last year’s peak season” in recent weeks.
Tariff policy creates planning paralysis. Gold noted that retailers “are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.” But continuous announcements of new sectoral tariffs—including 25% on furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom vanities taking effect in October—combined with the November 10 expiration of a 90-day tariff pause, makes strategic planning nearly impossible. Gold said flatly: “The uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success.”
Maersk’s October market update reveals how this uncertainty affects operational behavior. Shippers are booking only 1-2 weeks before departure during the current slack period, dramatically shorter than the recommended 3-4 week window. This compressed timeline “compresses equipment and space planning” for carriers and logistics providers. Shippers using LCL ocean freight can save up to 80% compared to air freight, but many remain hesitant to commit to long-term strategies.
Regional capacity imbalances create a tale of two markets
Here’s where carrier pain and shipper frustration collide: October 2025 features dramatic regional capacity disparities. Anderson Trucking Service reports that “capacity near East Coast ports is tightening, primarily due to tariff-related re-routing, but the Midwest is oversupplied.” The result? “You’ll have a much easier time finding a dry van in the Midwest this October than in the South.”
This creates what ATS calls “wide spot rate variation depending on lane direction, proximity to ports, and exposure to tariff-driven shifts.” For brokers, this means the same carrier experiencing slack demand in Indianapolis might desperately need capacity in Charleston—but the fragmented market prevents efficient repositioning.
Maersk warns shippers about ground freight: “The market is going through a period of strong headwinds. What this means for you: lock your core lanes under contract to capture today’s pricing and use spot only for true overflow.” Yet with carrier bankruptcies accelerating and rejection rates at historic lows, many shippers question whether contracted capacity will actually be honored.
The open-deck market shows similar geographic variance. Residential construction slowing in the Southeast and Midwest loosens flatbed capacity, while energy and infrastructure projects keep trucks tight in Texas and Alabama. Steel tariffs drive “rate volatility and capacity crunches” in specific regions. Cross-border shipping maintains tight capacity near Texas and New Mexico borders with Mexico.
The trust deficit: What each side complains about the other
Carrier complaints center on pricing power and market manipulation. With rejection rates at 5.6%, carriers feel brokers and shippers exploit oversupply to force unsustainable rates. FreightWaves noted: “There’s plenty of truck capacity on the road and not much negotiating leverage for small carriers on the load board.” The implication is clear: brokers can cherry-pick the lowest bids knowing desperate carriers will take break-even or negative-margin loads.
Small carriers also express frustration about being squeezed on both ends—rates stay flat while fuel, insurance, and equipment costs climb. One publication advised carriers: “Don’t just chase revenue—protect your margin,” suggesting many carriers accept loads that destroy their profitability simply to keep trucks moving.
Shipper complaints focus on service reliability and policy uncertainty. Maersk noted that “tighter U.S. trade rules, including changes to de minimis and tariffs on Chinese imports, are adding uncertainty and slowing long-term space commitments.” Yet shippers still need consistent, reliable service to fulfill customer commitments.
ATS emphasized that despite overall market softness, capacity will “still tighten across the board as retail peak season swings into full gear from October through December.” Shippers who relied on frontloading inventory earlier in the year may find themselves short on capacity for replenishment or unexpected demand spikes. The message to shippers: “Anticipate paying a bit more for dry van capacity from now through the end of the year.”
Perhaps most importantly, shippers express frustration that carrier instability undermines planning. When 17 carriers with 250+ tractors fail in a single quarter, shippers lose established relationships and face service disruptions. Maersk referenced “fly-by-night operators” providing inconsistent service, noting that shippers “are tired of unreliable capacity.”
Strategic survival: What winners are doing differently
Despite the challenging environment, both carrier and shipper articles identify strategic behaviors that separate survivors from casualties.
Successful carriers focus on margin protection over revenue chasing. FreightWaves emphasized: “The carriers who win in this environment are the ones running smart: Watching costs daily as they always fluctuate, planning fuel purchases before making the trek into your destination, and protecting their operational integrity above all.”
Building direct shipper relationships becomes critical. As market consolidation accelerates and unreliable operators exit, quality carriers with strong reputations can capture share. One article noted: “Shipper pain is rising. They’re tired of unreliable capacity from fly-by-night operators. So if you’ve built a reputation, have your systems in place, and know your lanes—you can offer consistent service and leverage your key differentiators.”
Strategic over reactive positioning helps carriers anticipate shifts. Carriers monitoring economic indicators like PMI can anticipate freight volume shifts 1-2 quarters ahead, positioning for recovery. “The small carrier who studies PMI, monitors market conditions, and plans accordingly will always outperform the one who reacts late.”
Equipment opportunities exist as well. With used truck prices “cheaper now than 18 months ago,” well-capitalized carriers can expand at favorable terms while distressed competitors exit.
Successful shippers employ complementary tactics. Multiple sources advised shippers to “lock your core lanes under contract to capture today’s pricing” rather than gambling on spot markets that may tighten unexpectedly.
Flexible equipment and timing helps navigate shortages. ATS recommends “considering alternative trailer types” (using Conestogas or reefers when flatbeds are tight) and “staying flexible with timing” by building in 48-72 hours extra lead time.
Mode optimization saves costs. Shippers not needing immediate replenishment can save up to 80% by using LCL ocean freight instead of air freight, but this requires planning ahead and ordering earlier.
Supply chain diversification addresses policy risk. Tariff uncertainty drives sourcing shifts away from China toward Southeast Asia, India (despite current tariff turbulence), and Mexico. Warehousing strategies emphasize flexibility over long-term commitments.
Strong carrier communication matters most. Both ATS and Maersk emphasized that “strong communication with your carrier or broker is key to navigating these seasonal changes smoothly.” In a market with regional capacity imbalances and rate volatility, relationships matter more than transactional bidding.
What October 2025 means for freight brokers
Brokers operate in the eye of this storm, serving two constituencies with increasingly incompatible needs. Carriers need higher rates to survive; shippers need lower costs amid tariff pressures and economic uncertainty. Regional capacity imbalances mean the traditional playbook—match capacity with demand—becomes exponentially more complex when the Midwest has excess trucks while East Coast ports face shortages.
The data reveals several broker opportunities. Reefer specialization offers the best carrier margins (16% rejection rate vs. 5.6% overall) and most consistent demand through Q4 2025, making temperature-controlled networks valuable.
Regional expertise becomes critical when capacity and rate dynamics vary dramatically by geography. Brokers who understand tariff-driven cargo flows and can efficiently reposition equipment between surplus and deficit markets create value.
Relationship depth matters more than transactional volume. With carrier bankruptcies accelerating and shipper booking windows compressed to 1-2 weeks, brokers who maintain consistent carrier networks and educate shippers on realistic expectations build defensible competitive advantages.
Advisory services differentiate brokers from commodity matchmakers. Shippers describe planning as “impossible” given tariff uncertainty. Brokers who can interpret PMI data, forecast capacity constraints, and recommend proactive contracting strategies become strategic partners.
The FreightWaves data showing carriers need rejection rates “north of 8%” for sustained improvement suggests current market conditions will persist through Q4 2025 at minimum. Yet ATS warns capacity will “still tighten across the board” during peak season despite frontloaded inventory. This paradox—simultaneous overcapacity and tightening conditions depending on lane, mode, and timing—defines the broker’s challenge.
Conclusion: Empathy as competitive advantage
Understanding both perspectives isn’t about choosing sides; it’s about recognizing legitimate pressures on each stakeholder. Carriers aren’t being unreasonable when they refuse loads at $2.36 per mile with diesel at $3.71 per gallon—they’re trying not to become bankruptcy statistic #18. Shippers aren’t being difficult when they compress booking windows and demand flexibility—they’re responding to tariff policy that makes planning beyond two weeks genuinely impossible.
The October 2025 market presents a rare moment where traditional peak season patterns collapsed, creating both crisis and opportunity. Brokers who can translate carrier survival strategies into shipper value propositions—explaining why paying slightly more now locks in capacity for Q4, or how alternative equipment types solve regional shortages—will outperform competitors treating freight as a pure commodity transaction.
Seven months of manufacturing contraction, 17 major carrier bankruptcies in one quarter, and import volumes falling 19% year-over-year don’t signal a market returning to “normal” soon. But they do signal a market where expertise, relationships, and strategic thinking create sustainable differentiation. The brokers who succeed in this environment will be those who stop seeing carriers and shippers as adversaries to be played against each other, and start seeing them as partners navigating unprecedented complexity together.
This analysis reflects freight market conditions through October 2025. Industry dynamics continue evolving, and brokers should maintain close relationships with both carriers and shippers while monitoring regulatory developments and economic indicators.